Fremantle finished the home-and-away season on top of the ladder. On Thursday night they played a qualifying final in front of 59,446 of their own people at Optus Stadium and scored ten points in the first half.
Hawthorn won 10.12 (72) to 5.10 (40) — 32 points, and it was never that close. The Hawks now go straight to a home preliminary final at the MCG with a week off. Fremantle, minor premiers, host a semi-final in Perth next week with their season on it.
This was not a fadeout or a bad last quarter. Fremantle were beaten from the opening bounce and never got the game back.
The scoreboard, quarter by quarter
Quarter time: Hawthorn 4.4 (28) to Fremantle 1.3 (9).
Half time: Hawthorn 6.7 (43) to Fremantle 1.4 (10).
Three-quarter time: Hawthorn 9.10 (64) to Fremantle 4.7 (31).
Full time: Hawthorn 10.12 (72) to Fremantle 5.10 (40).
Read the half-time line again. One goal and four behinds, at home, in a final, from the team that won more games than anyone else this year. Hawthorn kicked six goals in a row across the middle of the match before Jye Amiss finally broke it early in the third — and Nick Watson answered inside a minute to put the margin straight back where it had been.
How Hawthorn did it
The first quarter set the terms. Nick Watson soccered one through from around 20 metres out — the kind of goal that lifts a travelling side and quietens a home crowd at the same time — and Hawthorn kicked four straight from there to lead by 19 at the first break.
The second quarter was where the game was actually decided, and it was decided by pressure rather than polish. Hawthorn hunted the ball carrier, forced Fremantle to kick under duress, and turned the turnovers straight back inside 50. A free kick against Karl Worner became a running goal to Dylan Moore, and the lead was 33 at the main break.
Behind it all was James Sicily, who had 26 disposals, 10 marks and 12 intercepts and effectively closed off the corridor by himself. Tom Barrass and Josh Battle held the other two thirds of a back six that conceded five goals in a final. Will Day, Jai Newcombe and Jordan D’Ambrosio won the football that mattered through the middle.
Goalkickers
Hawthorn (10): Jack Gunston 2, Dylan Moore 2, Nick Watson 2, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan, Mitch Lewis, Harry Morrison.
Fremantle (5): Luke Jackson, Jye Amiss, Andy Brayshaw, Sam Switkowski, Josh Treacy — one each.
Five goals from five different players is not a forward line functioning. It is five isolated moments. Josh Treacy’s came from his first kick of the match, with five minutes left and the result long gone — which tells you more about the night than any team statistic will.
Fremantle: what actually went wrong
Jordan Clark, Andy Brayshaw, Neil Erasmus and Worner were the ones who kept turning up. That is a short list for a minor premier at home.
The bigger problem was forward of centre. Fremantle’s tall forwards were beaten in the air and beaten on the ground, and the entries that did come in arrived rushed and contested — which is exactly the ball Sicily and Barrass want. There is no reading of 1.4 at half time that is about bad luck.
Brandon Walker hurt an ankle and was ruled out during the third quarter, which did not help. Mitch Lewis hurt a shoulder in a heavy landing for Hawthorn but came back after half time.
For Justin Longmuir, the record now reads four years without a finals win. Finishing first and losing a home qualifying final by 32 is the hardest possible version of that.
The price, and how far wrong it was
Fremantle went in around $1.46 — an implied probability of roughly 68%. Hawthorn were $2.73, about 37% implied. The line had Fremantle giving up 13.5 points.
Hawthorn won by 32. That is 45.5 points the other side of the line, and it is the sort of result that says the market was pricing ladder position rather than the way these two sides actually match up.
The caveat is the same one that always applies: a 37% chance winning is not a scandal, it is a 37% chance behaving normally. But there is a difference between an underdog getting up and an underdog leading by 33 at half time in a final on the road. The second one is evidence about the matchup, not about variance.
TheAIbet’s updated finals probabilities — and where they sit against the market for the preliminary finals — are live now.
