The ladder has locked, and the AFL’s first wildcard round has its games: Melbourne host Carlton, and the Western Bulldogs host Collingwood.
Two winners advance into the finals proper, re-seeded by ladder position — fifth plays the lowest-ranked survivor, sixth plays the highest-ranked. Two losers are done. And the story of how these four got here is half the intrigue.
The cruellest cut: Melbourne’s percentage problem
Melbourne finished on 60 points — exactly level with Geelong and Adelaide, who took fifth and sixth and the week off. The difference is percentage: Geelong at 122.3 and Adelaide at 117.3, Melbourne back at 109.6. Same wins, one extra knockout game.
It’s the exact trap we flagged when the format dropped: sixth gets a bye, seventh gets sudden death. Melbourne’s 132–56 demolition of Port Adelaide in Round 23 announced them as a genuine September threat — but the Round 24 loss to the Bulldogs at the MCG meant every cheap goal conceded across the season finally sent the bill.
The consolation: on talent and recent scoring power, Melbourne are comfortably the strongest side in this bracket. The team nobody in the top six wants to see survive is the one playing on Saturday.
Melbourne v Carlton: the mismatch on paper
Carlton took the last ticket into September with two points from a possible eight across the final fortnight — the draw with the Bulldogs, then Saturday against the minor premiers. They’re alive, but they’ve been running on fumes since mid-August.
Melbourne’s season resume towers over Carlton’s: more wins, genuine top-four scoring power when it clicks, and a Round 23 performance that remains the most complete football any club has played this month. The percentage that cost them the bye says the bad days have been bad — it doesn’t say they happen often.
Carlton’s path is the one we wrote before the Fremantle game and it hasn’t changed: make it chaotic. A fast, open shootout drags Melbourne into variance; a controlled, structured game plays to the better season-long side. Tenth beating seventh also carries a quirk worth remembering — if Carlton win, they’re the lowest-ranked survivor and travel to fifth, handing sixth the tougher re-seeded draw.
The read: Melbourne, clearly — class, scoring power and a point to prove about the weekend that cost them the bye. But wildcard football is single-elimination, and Carlton have spent a month playing sudden-death already. That’s worth something.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood: momentum against the walking wounded
The Bulldogs earned hosting rights the hard way — their Round 24 win over Melbourne at the MCG is the reason they’re at home and the reason Melbourne are in this bracket at all. Add the 82-all draw with Carlton the week before and the Dogs enter September in genuine form, even if their season percentage (95.4) says they’ve done it the hard way all year.
Collingwood arrive from the other direction entirely. Friday night’s 159–96 loss to Brisbane — 25 goals conceded — is the worst possible dress rehearsal, and the injury list is the story of their week: Scott Pendlebury’s knee bursa is the headline scan, with Jeremy Howe (arm) and Brayden Maynard pushing to return, Isaac Quaynor expected back for finals and Patrick Lipinski’s calf due around now. Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Reef McInnes, Oscar Steene and Tew Jiath are done for the year.
The case for the Pies anyway: they kicked six straight in the last quarter against Brisbane, Jordan De Goey is in career-best touch, Sam Swadling has arrived, and their percentage (102.4) says the season-long team is better than the 8th-versus-9th seeding suggests. If the returning defenders actually return, this is a different side to Friday’s.
The read: closest game of the weekend. Bulldogs’ form and home ground against Collingwood’s returning class — a genuine coin-flip that likely comes down to whether Pendlebury and the defenders are passed fit. Slight lean to the Dogs if Collingwood’s medical room loses the week.
